Effect of exercise referral schemes upon health and well-being: initial observational insights using individual patient data meta-analysis from the National Referral Database.

To examine if exercise referral schemes (ERSs) are associated with meaningful changes in health and well-being in a large cohort of individuals throughout England, Scotland, and Wales from the National Referral Database. Data were obtained from 23 731 participants from 13 different ERSs lasting 6 weeks to 3 months. Changes from pre- to post-ERS in health and well-being outcomes were examined including body mass index (BMI), blood pressure (systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP)), resting heart rate (RHR), short Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (SWEMWBS), WHO Well-Being Index (WHO-5), Exercise Related Quality of Life scale (ERQoL), and Exercise Self-Efficacy Scale (ESES). Two-stage individual patient data meta-analysis was used to generate effect estimates. Estimates (95% CIs) revealed statistically significant changes occurred compared with point nulls for BMI (-0.55 kg.m (-0.69 to -0.41)), SBP (-2.95 mmHg (-3.97 to -1.92)), SWEMWBS (2.99 pts (1.61 to 4.36)), WHO-5 (8.78 pts (6.84 to 10.63)), ERQoL (15.26 pts (4.71 to 25.82)), and ESES (2.58 pts (1.76 to 3.40)), but not RHR (0.22 (-1.57 to 1.12)) or DBP (-0.93 mmHg (-1.51 to -0.35)). However, comparisons of estimates (95% CIs) against null intervals suggested the majority of outcomes may not improve meaningfully. We considered whether meaningful health and well-being changes occur in people who are undergoing ERSs. These results demonstrate that, although many health and well-being outcomes improved, the changes did not achieve meaningful levels. This suggests the need to consider the implementation of ERSs more critically to discern how to maximise their effectiveness. [Abstract copyright: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.]